3rd February 2010 02:18
Castello
Damn it. Damn it. Damn it. Hull 1-1 Chelsea.
I’m now £1733.59 down overall and and £56.20 down for the term. My mind is committed to the overall figure, so I feel like I’ve lost a whole lot more than £56. Really, I should give up. I know this… but it’s difficult to let go, particularly when you think you’ve come so close.
I’m putting £80 on the same bet again, but swapping tonight’s losing selection with a team that’s lost their last five games. Yes – they’ve lost their last five games. It’s Werder Bremen to beat rock-bottom side Hertha Berlin at odds of 1.4 on Friday evening. My main reason for replacing tonight’s Chelsea selection is to boost up the odds again; without this I’d have had to put on over 50% more (£123) to win the same amount.
But I also think they’ll win. Which I guess helps. But then again, that logic hasn’t served me well to say the least.
Despite losing their last five games, Bremen are still as high as 6th (of 18). And it should be noted that of those five games, the two home games were against Bayern Munich and Schalke (2nd and 3rd), and the away defeats are at 5th, 7th and 12th positioned teams. They have to get their first win eventually – they showed they have quality with the kind of form which allows them to still occupy 6th – and hopefully it will come in the big Friday night televised games against opposition that are all but down already.
Hertha Berlin are seven points off of the surival spots and have only won and drawn one game apiece this season, losing their remaining 8 games – 5 of which were by a two-goal margin or more. However, they have picked up five points from their last three games and haven’t conceded a single goal (3-0 away at Hannover, 16th, and 0-0 against 12th and 14th).
It’s a risk. But the risky route is the one I’ve chosen.
So, to summarise:
- Fulham v Portsmouth – 1.72 (Wed)
- Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin – 1.4 (Fri)
- Manchester United v Portsmouth – 1.14 (Sat)
- Valencia v Valladolid – 1.33
- Barcelona v Getafe – 1.14
- Real Madrid v Espanyol – 1.2
- Birmingham v Wolves – 1.8 (Sun)
- Chelsea v Arsenal – 1.8
Stake: £80.00
Odds: 22.92 (including 40% 8-fold bonus at Bet365)
Potential return: £1833.94
Potential surplus: £20.35
Bloody Totnumb. Bloody Milan. Bloody Chelsea… Bloody ME.
2nd February 2010 01:43
Castello
I was wrong. Five out of six; Milan were held at home to Livorno to a 1-1 draw, costing me a possible £1643.59 – which is the exact amount I’m now down. Bastards.
I’ve found the way in which I cope with the disappointment is to jump straight back on the horse and look for another way out. Always must have a plan. In life this is a positive strategy. In gambling, however…
My housemates say I should swallow some pride and give up. Pfft. They’re of course right though – it’s rather destructive.
I just cannot learn can I? And although I was very close in this latest bet (and many others!), it’s a likely concequence of backing too many teams – statistically it gets increasingly probable one or two will slip up. I backed 6 teams on Thursday. So I’ll back 8 teams now!
We start off tomorrow with some truly terrible value – CHELSEA to beat Hull away at 2/7 (1.28). That damn Bet365 special offer has bitten me again; I’m effectively getting an incremental 10% bonus on the total return with each extra selection I pick. Hull are without a win in their last 9 league games. Also, while they’re undefeated at home in the 8 games they’ve played against teams 9th (Everton) and below, they’ve lost all three games against clubs higher. In regards to Chelsea, despite what many perceived to have been a significant December wobble, they’re the mark of consistency and posess the mark of Champions too – the art of winning when not necessarily playing well, as was the case against Burnley at the weekend.
A bit more value in Wednesday’s selection, although only a bit. It’s FULHAM to beat Portsmouth at the Cottage. Ok, I’m going to be honest, I didn’t actually realise they’ve lost their last 5 league games. Um, but I do rate them highly, and, to be fair, 4 of those games were away from home, so they still hold a respectable home win percentage of 55%. Portsmouth have lost 73% of their away games this season (winning at Wolves and drawing at Hull and Sunderland). Their players are being made to wait yet again for their wages and I imagine that many of them are disappointed to still be there post transfer-window, which surely can’t help matters.
So, onto ze weekend. In what I consider to be reasonably safe bets (like AC Milan to beat Liverno…), I’ve backed MAN UTD v Hull, REAL MADRID v Espanyol (both 1.14) and BARCELONA v Gefate (1.16). Espanyol are 14th but are the second lowest scorers in the league and have lost their last 5 away games. Getafe are 7th and are reasonably tight – there hasn’t been more than a one-goal margin in any of their last 7 league games. But I expect the might of the el classico two to overcome their opponents reasonably comfortably.
I’ve also got VALENCIA down to beat Valladolid at 1.33. Although Valencia have a much better away record than at home, hopefully this slight anomaly will now continue to even itself out after failing to win in their last two games, which includes a 2-1 defeat at Sevilla on Sunday. Valladolid are 17th and have only won once in their last 12 games.
BIRMINGHAM to win at home to Wolves is my first Sunday selection, which I’ve backed at 1.72. Brum’s only defeat in their last 14 games came away at Chelsea – which I think is excusable – and they’re flying relatively high in 8th position. Similar to Hull, they’ve got a much better home record against the lower 11 teams, winning 5 of 7 (only losing to Bolton). Wolves, who are 17th, have a very comparable record on the road to what they have at home; indeed, if they were to win at St Andrew’s, it would be identical. They’re certainly have capable of getting something out of this midlands derby but I hope Birmingham will pull through.
Ok, I hope my best mate won’t read about my final selection – he might shoot me. It’s CHELSEA to beat my club Arsenal. I feel like a whore, and rightly so too. Although the odds are the highest of any of my 8 selections at 1.8, for me this is a virtual certainty. We were shocking on Sunday against United, absolutely shocking. Arseblog today summed up most of my thoughts very well. Perhaps we’ll see some sort of reaction from the players, but I was expecting to see one after half-time at the Emirates and there certainly wasn’t. In a way I judge Man Utd for only beating us 3-1, we were that poor.
I’ve put £90 on this bet which, at odds of 19.64 (14.03 before the 40% 8-fold bonus), has a potential return of £1767.57. That would make a profit of £1677.57, which would result in an overall profit £34 – and with that I would, I think, stop this destructive gambling (if only for a while). This could make for a peculiar situation on Sunday at 4pm; an Arsenal fan reluctantly but desperately needing for Chelsea to beat his team for the best part of two-grand. But I bring these things on myself.
Lady Luck has forsaken me for long enough now – so, please, I beg of you…
28th January 2010 17:37
Castello
Arsenal’s failure to win at Villa Park last night, despite hitting the post twice, cost me a potential £589 from my £30 ‘bonus bet’, but Chelsea confirmed a return of £719 from my primary £90 bet, which included wins for Genoa (2-0) against Atalanta and Bolton (1-0) against Burnley. In total, a profit of some £599 was made, leaving me with £1313 to win.
So… after much deliberation, in what can only be described as a war inside my head, I have finally placed this weekend’s bet.
Risk vs reward? Do I, for instance, include Liverpool to beat Bolton at odds of 1.44 when they failed to even create any chances of note at Wolves on Tuesday night? Of course, I think they’ll win, but with Bolton on the up under their new manager and some uncertainty surrounding the future of Rafa Benitez, it’s hardly set up for them to do so.
And do I include Chelsea away at Burnely and/or Barca winning on their travels at Gijon, at pitiful odds of 1.29 and 1.2, respectively? Or perhaps Bayern Munich at home to 8th placed Mainz, who beat the German giants 2-1 in August, at only 1.2?
On their own merits, these odds don’t represent value. But is the perception of value then changed when they’re included in an accumulator, and returns are then increased by 20%, 28% or 44%? And what about when you include Bet365’s European top-flight accumulator special offer (which earnt me an extra £119 last night), where each further selection after the first four offers an incremental bonus of 10% (… 20% for 6 picks, 40% for 8 picks and so on)?
I decided against selecting Liverpool and Munich, wagering £330.48 on CHELSEA, BARCALONA, AC MILAN v Livorno (1.29), ROMA v Sienna (1.29), MAN CITY v Portsmouth (1.3) and LEVERKUSEN v Freiburg (1.25). This six-fold bet has basic odds of 4.14 which is then increased to 4.97 when the 20% bonus is included, resulting in a potential return of £1643.59 and profit of £1313.11 – exactly the amount I’m down, to the penny.
However, if I included Bayern Munich then the overall odds would increase from 4.97 to 6.47 with the extra 10% bonus, or if I had included Liverpool then the odds would’ve increased to 7.78. That would consequently meant that I would’ve only needed the bet £240 or £194 to win the same amount as my £330 could potentially profit. If I had included both of the selections then with odds of 10.06, I’d only have had to bet £144.
My natural inclination is to roll the dice, but that’s how I got myself in this mess in the first place! So, for the same reward, there’s a significantly greater financial liability BUT increased likelihood of winning the accumulator.
Was I right? Was I wrong? I guess we’ll see…
22nd January 2010 18:51
Castello
Damn Tottenham, the bottlers. Oh, deja vu.
Recap: I’m now £235 down for the term, £720 down for the week and £1912.39 in the red overall, which is what I still harbour hopes – or perhaps dreams – of winning back. But I fear that this next betting round is my last opportunity to do so as money is running low and I need to be able to buy pasta. I don’t even particularly like pasta.
Remember that lesson I preached last weekend about not betting on too many teams in an accumulator as one will inevitably slip up?… The lesson that I then proved with Spurs’ “football’s football” draw at home to Hull, where they blitzed the goal but failed to beat the keeper? Well…
I’ve just put £90 on a six-team accumulator and a further £30 on the same bet but with a seventh selection – Arsenal to win a Villa Park on Wednesday (2.3). The core six is made up of four bets I expect to win, which are MAN UTD v Hull (1.14), REAL MADRID v Malaga (1.16), Valladolid v BARCA (1.28) and CHELSEA v Birmingham (Wednesday, 1.16). The other two selections I really think will win but are certainly not ‘certainties’: GENOA v Atalanta (1.85) and BOLTON v Burnley (Tuesday, 1.8).
The £90 six-fold bet has total odds of 7.79 with the 20% bonus Bet365 are offering, which returns a potential profit of £611, and the £30 Arsenal bet has odd of 19.62 including a 30% bonus, which could return a further profit of £558. In total that’s £1169.
The Barca bet is perhaps the most risky of the four ‘certainties’ as they’re playing away, but they have scored an average of 2.22 goals on the road (2.88 at home) and have only conceded an average of 0.44, compared to 0.66 at home. Valladolid are 17th, a single point clear of the relegations spots, and have only won two of their nine home games this season, scoring and conceding an average of 1.66 and 1.88, respectively. The quality difference should really shine through… I hope.
Genoa host Atalanta on Sunday and despite sitting in 11th position they’re only three points away from getting back into Europe. Genoa have been banging in the goals this season – an average of 1.65 per game, a record which can only be beaten by the top three teams. On home soil, however, scoring is boosted to an average of 2.35 and they’ve only lost once, to Inter Milan (albeit 5-0), and have won six of their nine others. Atalanta lies 18th in the league and have won and drawn two games apiece on the road, losing the remaining six. Their two wins came against 17th and 20th, with the two draws arriving at 13th and 15th and their goals for and against record is 0.9 to 1.6, respectively.
Owen Coyle welcomes his former club Burley to the Reebok in a ‘six-pointer’ which could prove to be pivotal in both clubs’ battle against relegation. Bolton are 19th with a game-in-hand, a point off the survival spots and two points behind Burnley (15th) and have only actually won two of their eleven home games this season (Everton and West Ham). I’ve watched them closely in their last two games against Arsenal and I think they’re revitalised under their new manager, perhaps leading to an improvement in their home record in the league – which will hopefully start on Tuesday. Burnley have a terrible record on the road, losing 10 of their 11 games (3-3 at City) and have conceded an average of 3.09, scoring only 0.72 (0.45 if you exclude the relative anomaly at Eastlands). But it’s a huge game for both sides, virtually a cup tie in fact – meaning anything can happen.
Arsenal, who are enjoying a very good run of form, winning away at Villa is my bonus selection. It’s going to be a very tough match but we do certainly have the quality and [with my bias] I believe we’ll show the character on the night to snatch the victory. Aston Villa have failed to score in their last two home games against Liverpool and West Ham and I hope they’ll be slightly distracted from their challenging Champions League race by their Carling Cup run. This selection is a big risk and is mostly based on my ‘good feeling’ – albeit apprehensive good feeling – which is why I’ve separated it from my core bet.
Thankfully Totnumb are not a part of this bet, meaning I can’t lose. Right?…
20th January 2010 13:30
Castello
Damn Tottenham, the bottlers.
Not only did their bottling of multiple clear chances lead a bottling of an opportunity to go clear in 4th and effectively cost me over £1600, but I went on to – as you do – lose a further £460. Yup, I’m a muppet.
Not long after the result on Saturday, I put £160 on another multiple bet, which Real Madrid promptly lost with their 1-0 defeat at Bilbao, where they squandered a whole host of chances.
Naturally, I decided the only answer to losing money was to lose yet more money, so I put £230 on the same bet again, but without Madrid and Barca: Arsenal (both Sunday, 2-0, and this evening), AC Milan (4-0), Schalke (1-0) and Fiorentina, who lost 2-1 at home to Bolonga – a defeat which cost me a potential £1175, assuming Arsenal win later.
I then of course decided that a mere £600 wasn’t enough to blow on a single weekend, so £70 went on the two Arsenal games again, Valencia (4-1), Atletico Madrid (3-2) and 19th placed Real Zaragoza, who drew 0-0 at home to Xerez in 20th, despite having a one man advantage for 40 minutes. That draw cost me a potential £673, which would’ve broken me even for this devastating weekend.
I had come to the conclusion that I was just ridiculously stupid – which, of course, I was in my recklessness of chasing loses – but, nonetheless, I feel I was a bit unlucky for Spurs, Fiorentina and Zaragoza to be the only teams in three bets to cost me big money. That opinion is very debateable, I concede.
So that Tottenham draw did turn out to not only cost me £1600, but a total difference of £2064. As a result, I’m currently down £185 for this term and £1862.39 overall.
But it doesn’t stop there! Late on Sunday night, in a mood of despair and recklessness, I decided to punt £50 on a long shot; Newcastle to draw with West Brom on Monday at 3.4, which finished 2-2, Arsenal to beat Bolton (1.22) and Liverpool to draw with Tottenham tonight (3.25), which, at odds of 13.5, potentially returns £675. So a draw at Anfield and an expected win at the Emirates, where I’ll be this evening, would leave me £45 in the red for the week, £440 up for the term and £1237.39.
Crazy, right? But the buzz is… interesting. Yeah, I’m addicted.
So Liverpool-Tottenham is the big game for me. Gerrard and Torres are of course both out injured, which render The Reds half the team than they otherwise would be, if that. This is a big game for them and, although a draw wouldn’t be devastating, a defeat would surely make the last Champions League spot ever so slightly beyond reach.
Spurs have a reasonable away record this season, only losing at Arsenal and Chelsea, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceding 1.4. I feel that they’d certainly take a draw, but will be tentatively looking for more. Liverpool, on the other hand, have a tough game on their hands, and while I really think G&T would make the difference tonight – can’t.
So a draw is not only what I’m praying for, but also what my head is saying. You can get 2.45 at Expekt.com for the Liverpool win, 2/1 at Ladbrokes for the Tottenham win (which I think is surprisingly low) and 3.4 for the draw at Victor Chandler, which I think is an example of very good value.
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